After a pause in interest rate cuts since the last cut at the December 2024 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve finally reduced rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting.

An extremely low jobs report for August, released in the first week of September, focused all attention on the jobs market. The real shock wasn’t the low number of jobs created, it was the revisions to prior months that resulted in a negative 13,000 jobs in June.

The hot days of high summer are usually regarded as the “silly season” because, lacking important news, the media tends to look for trivial material that will capture viewers. Not this year.

June saw a further complication of the macro situation as U.S. military involvement in Iran was added to ongoing tariff confusion and a worsening of the economic outlook for the balance of 2025 and into 2026.

May was a month of differing perspectives. Markets turned positive on a belief that a solution on tariffs would be eventually forthcoming, and the continued whipsawing headlines began to have a muted impact.

April began with the shock of tariff announcements that were much more punitive than anticipated by businesses, markets, investors, and economists. Equity markets promptly pulled back, even entering bear territory, although not closing there.

The month of March started out on a positive note as CPI came in lower than expected, creating a brief respite from worries about the impact of tariffs. It was short-lived, as the result of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at mid-month was policy stasis with no changes to rates.